Working Papers
MATISSE Working Papers are the outcome of ongoing research activities in the integrated research project. The present preliminary results, which are open for debate and improvement for publication in scientific journals. All comments and suggestions are welcome.
Working Paper 1 (10/2006):
Paul M. Weaver, Jan Rotmans: Integrated Sustainability Assessment: What? Why? How? [Abstract]
Working Paper 2 (10/2006):
Lorraine Whitmarsh, Martin Wietschel: Sustainable Transport Visions: What role for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles technologies? [Abstract]
Working Paper 3 (10/2006):
Lorraine Whitmarsh, Jonathan Köhler, Noam Bergman, Alex Haxeltine, Björn Nykvist, Martin Wietschel: Modelling and Assessing Transition pathways to hydrogen society [Abstract]
Working Paper 4 (10/2006):
Jan Rotmans: Tools for Integrated Sustainabiility Assessment: a Two-Track Approach [Abstract]
Working Paper 5 (10/2006):
Paul M. Weaver, Andrew Jordan: Further reflections on differences and complementarities between (S)IA and ISA: scaling,power and their treatment within sustainability assessment
Working Paper 6 (1/2007):
Julia Hertin, Andrew Jordan, Måns Nilsson, Björn Nykvist, Duncan Russel and John Turnpenny: The practice of policy assessment in Europe: An institutional and political analysis [Abstract]
Working Paper 7 (2/2007):
Björn Nykvist, Lorraine Whitmarsh: Identifying opportunities and pathways for transitions to sustainable transport in Sweden and the UK [Abstract]
Working Paper 8 (4/2007):
J. David Tàbara, Elisabet Roca, Cristina Madrid: Developing new methods and tools for the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of water. The MATISSE project and the Ebro River Basin. [Abstract]
Working Paper 9 (4/2007):
J. David Tàbara, Bodil Elmqvist, Akgun Ilhan, Cristina Madrid, Lennart Olson, Michel Schilperoord, Pieter Valkering, Patrick Wallman and Paul Weaver: Participatory Modelling for the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Water: the World Cellular Model and the MATISSE Project. [Abstract]
Working Paper 10 (4/2007):
J. David Tàbara, Akgun Ilhan: Culture as Trigger for Sustainability Transition in the Water Domain. The case of the Spanish Water Policy and the Ebro River Basin [Abstract]
Working Paper 11 (4/2007):
J. David Tàbara, Claudia Pahl-Wostl: Sustainability learning in the management of social-ecological systems [Abstract]
Working Paper 12 (5/2007):
Paul M. Weaver: Incentives and frameworks for increasing the capital value, service value and use rates of durable goods [Abstract]
Working Paper 13 (7/2007):
Isabel van de Sand, Katarina Markosova, Jan Kovanda, Helmut Schütz, Stefan Bringezu: Comparison of material use and resource intensity of the Czech Republic, Germany, EU-15. Analysis of the input structure and major trends of the physical economy between 1991 and 2000 [Abstract]
Working Paper 14 (7/2007):
Lorraine Whitmarsh: Citizens' workshops on sustainable futures: report on findings. [Abstract]
Working Paper 15 (7/2007)
Wolfgang Schade, Martin Wietschel, Paul M. Weaver: Reframing sustainable transport: exploring hydrogen strategies using Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) [Abstract]
Working Paper 16 (7/2007)
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Review of experience with existing models and their suitability for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) [Abstract]
Working Paper 17 (10/2007)
Lorraine Whitmarsh, Jill Jäger, Björn Nykvist, Wolfgang Schade, Philipp Seydel, Sophie Strasser, Paul M. Weaver, Martin Wietschel: Stakeholder Feedback on MATISSE Sustainable Hydrogen Scope and Visions: Findings from the February 2006 Hydrogen Stakeholder Workshop [Abstract]
Working Paper 18 (10/2007)
Lorraine Whitmarsh, Lisa Bohunovsky, Jill Jäger, Björn Nykvist: Stakeholder Feedback on MATISSE Sustainable Visions and Pathways: Findings from the June 2007 Hydrogen Stakeholder Workshop [Abstract]
Working Paper 19 (3/2008)
Anthony Barker, Lisa Bohunovsky, Jill Jäger, Jan Kovanda, Isabel van de Sand: Using Environmental Tax Reform to Support Sustainable Development in Transition Economies: the case of the Czech Republic [Abstract]
Working Paper 20 (3/2008)
Mathieu Saurat, Stefan Bringezu: Platinum Group Metal Flows in Europe. Global Supply, Use in Industries and the Shift of Environmental Impact. PART I. [Abstract]
Working Paper 21 (3/2008)
Mathieu Saurat, Stefan Bringezu: Platinum Group Metal Flows in Europe. Exploring Technological and Institutional Potentials to Reduce Environmental Impacts. PART II. [Abstract]
Working Paper 22 (2/2008)
Dogan Keles, Martin Wietschel: Market Penetration of Fuel Cell Vehicles - Analysis Based on Agent Behaviour. [Abstract]
Working Paper 25 (4/2008)
Pieter Valkering, Astrid Offermans, David Tàbara, Patrik Wallman, Boldil Elmqvist, Goran Ewald, Pim Martens: Modelling cultural and behavioural change in water management: An integrated, agent-based, gaming approach. [Abstract]
Working Paper 26 (4/2008)
Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Jan Rotmans: Conceptualizing, observing and influencing socio-ecological transitions [Abstract]
Working Paper 27 (5/2008)
Jean Charles Hourcade, Renaud Crassous, Christophe Cassen, Bruno Dorin, Vincent Gitz: A Novel Hybrid Architecture for Agriculture and Land Use in an Integrated Modeling Framework [Abstract]
Working Paper 28 (5/2008)
A.Maarit.I. Kallio, Birger Solberg, Alexander Moiseyev: Analysing Forest Sector Sustainability in MATISSE: Description of Model, Baseline Projections and Impacts of Increased Biodiversity Protection [Abstract]
Working Paper 29 (5/2008)
Jean Charles Hourcade, Renaud Crassous, Christophe Cassen, Antoine Saglio, Daniel Thery, Vincent Gitz, André Pereira: Biofuels and the Environment-Development Gordian Knot: Insights on the Brazilian Exception [Abstract]
The term ‘sustainability assessment’ embraces several approaches with different purposes and premises. Currently, most practical applications of sustainability assessment fulfil a pragmatic role in screening already-tabled sectoral policy proposals that have no sustainability orientation per se. While the demand for screening will continue, the real contribution of sustainability assessment lies in its potential use in strategic level analyses where the objective is to help develop long-term, cross-sectoral policies expressly designed to contribute to sustainable development. This depends upon a new conceptualization of sustainability assessment as an integrative process at the science-policy-society interface, and up-streaming it within the policy process.
Transport systems perform vital societal functions, but in their present state cannot be considered ‘sustainable’. Particular concerns in this respect include emissions, accidents, land use, noise, obesity and social exclusion. Increasing attention is being focussed on hydrogen transport technologies as a means to achieving more sustainable transport. In this paper, we draw on expert stakeholder evidence and the wider literature to elucidate criteria for sustainable transport and determine the extent to which hydrogen transport technologies can meet these criteria. Our findings indicate that hydrogen could alleviate some of the problems in the transport sector associated with emissions and energy supply security. However, other transport problems are not mitigated - and some may even be exacerbated - by hydrogen use. Thus, we highlight the need for integrated transport policies and argue for more reflexive and inclusive societal debate about the impacts and beneficiaries of hydrogen transport technologies.
Many of the serious persistent problems of unsustainability facing society cannot be adequately resolved with traditional incremental and sectoral approaches to policy-making. Problems associated with unsustainable forms and levels of transport, for example, include congestion, social exclusion, public health risks, and climate change. The notion of ‘transitions’ has been proposed as a suitable analytical framework for understanding these types of persistent problems (e.g., Rotmans et al., 2001). This framework highlights the interdependency of institutions and infrastructures constituting the transport and related sub-systems, which has created various types of lock-in that stifle innovation. In this project we aim to critically explore whether the notion of transitions can be usefully applied in policy-relevant research to better understand the complex nature of social systems and to improve the tool-kit available for developing and evaluating sustainability policies.
In this paper, we discuss work that is underway in the EU Framework 6 project MATISSE to develop the science and application of Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) in EU policy-making. ISA is a strategic, multi-disciplinary, inclusive process for formulating and assessing sustainability policies. In particular, we focus on one of the four case studies used in the project - transport - and examine the possibility of a transition to a hydrogen-based road transport system. There is a strong interest at European level in a ‘hydrogen economy’, or ‘hydrogen society’, potentially to provide solutions to problems of urban air pollution, climate change, and threats to energy security, and at the same time to ensure European competitiveness. However, while recent research has focussed on the technical and economic aspects of transition pathways to a hydrogen society, less attention has been given to the wider social, institutional and cultural dimensions of such a transition.
The research presented here adopts a two-track approach to assess the sustainability implications and prospects of a hydrogen transition. Firstly, we use stakeholder engagement methods to elucidate visions of sustainable transport and assess the role of hydrogen transport technologies within these visions. Secondly, building on previous attempts to model a hydrogen transition (e.g., Schwoon, 2005) and long-term technological change (Köhler, 2003, 2005), we develop an innovative model of a hydrogen transition within road transport. We believe this strategy provides a more integrated and robust approach to assessing a transition to sustainable transport than using a single-method approach. In this paper, we discuss initial findings from the stakeholder and modelling work within the MATISSE project, and consider their implications for policy-making with regard to transport and hydrogen technologies.
Sustainable development has become an overarching policy target for the global policy arena. However, the international policy-making process and that of the individual countries remains largely sectoral in nature: a wide spectrum of international policies pursues narrow sectoral concerns and do not contribute fully enough to the achievement of broader sustainability targets. New policy tools such as Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) have therefore been adopted by the European Union to ensure that sectoral policies can be evaluated in relation to their wider, sustainability impacts. However, what is really needed is a cross-sectoral approach to assessing sustainable development at an even higher, much more strategic level: Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA). ISA involves a long-term, comprehensive assessment of international and national policy programmes against sustainability targets and criteria.
In order to perform ISA at the international level, new assessment tools and methods are needed which are rooted in a new paradigm. Sustainable development is a complex, multi-dimensional phenomenon, with a breadth and depth that cannot be fully covered by the current portfolio of ISA-tools. We therefore need a new generation of ISA-tools, in particular modelling tools that can (semi-)quantitatively assess the multiple dimensions of sustainable development, in terms of multiple scales, multiple domains and multiple generations. Although a new paradigm is on the horizon and its contours are gradually becoming clearer, it will take a while before it can be used to develop practical ISA-tools.
Within the context of the European MATISSE project we therefore propose a two-track strategy: find new ways to use the current portfolio of ISA-tools as efficiently and effectively as possible, while at the same time developing building blocks to support the next generation of ISA-tools.
Many jurisdictions have committed themselves to using policy assessment procedures in a drive for more ‘evidence based’ policy. These procedures are intended to be based on tools such as cost benefit analysis, economic models and multi-criteria analysis. Academic effort has focussed on improving the ‘supply side’ of these activities, developing best practice guidelines, and producing and disseminating new analytical tools; researchers have tended to neglect the ‘demand side’: the needs of the policymakers who are expected to undertake assessments. In this paper, we present empirical evidence relating to the use of tools in policy assessment procedures to aid decision making in four European jurisdictions: the European Union, Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden. We identify constraints on selection and use of tools, and draw lessons for the future development of policy assessment procedures. We focus particularly on the implications for future more integrated, sustainable policymaking. The way jurisdictions claim that policy assessment procedures will be used resonates very strongly with the basic normative principles of integrated sustainability assessment, that is comprehensiveness, transparency, integration and learning. However, there are very significant gaps between the everyday practice of assessment in the four jurisdictions and the quality standards defined in formal guidance documents, even where attempts have been made to improve assessment quality and harness policy assessment procedures to the goal of sustainable development. In addition to practical problems of lack of time, resources, data and expertise, there is also a number of structural barriers. Policy formulation activities are constrained well before the start of the formal decision-making process - for example by pre-existing political initiatives and policies, by administrative procedures, international and EU legal frameworks and policy commitments. The level of scepticism towards using formal assessment tools is also deeply engrained. Strategic behaviour (including non-disclosure) by both officials and stakeholders limits the scope for learning. High level political support for using assessment to deliver sustainability remains weak. The dominant policy paradigm across all four jurisdictions is one of market liberalism and reducing regulation, and policy assessment activities are very often distorted to fit this. The messiness and incremental nature of the policy process, compared to the more rational-comprehensive model implicit in policy assessment procedures, is also a key factor in determining the observed behaviour. More resources and training, increased quality control and stronger leadership will certainly have some impact, but they are unlikely to bring about the shift in assessment practice sought by advocates of integrated sustainability assessment. Introducing processes more akin to integrated sustainability assessment would involve establishment of more open learning activities. Currently there are no blueprints for success, but our research suggests that such activities need to be sufficiently institutionalised to allow a long term commitment amongst the main players, but capable of operating at some distance from everyday political decisions.
A wide range of intractable problems such as emissions of greenhouse gases and local air pollutants, noise, accidents, depletion of resources, and inaccessibility of amenities and services are associated with the current transport regime. Given the limited impact of technical and policy solutions to date, more radical, systemic innovation - a transition - is required to move towards a more sustainable mobility system. Broadly speaking, this may be achieved via three main routes: improving efficiency and reducing the impact of vehicles (technological change); using more sustainable modes of travel (increased use of public transport and slow modes); and reducing the need to travel (through urban planning, lifestyle change and increased use of information and communication technologies). Drawing on concepts from the transitions literature (e.g., Rotmans et al., 2001; Geels, 2005), we conceptualise each of these three routes as a form of ‘niche’ activity, deviating to differing degrees from the current mobility ‘regime’ of oil-dependence, steel chassis and internal combustion engine technologies, and personal/private transport. Using this analytical framework, we firstly review the potential for each of these three niche areas to offer sustainable mobility solutions, and show that each offers different strengths and weaknesses. We then present empirical evidence of ongoing (policy, market, cultural) development in these three areas within the UK and Sweden; and explore processes of co-evolution, divergence and tension within and between these niche areas. Findings from this research indicate a recent market penetration of novel transport technologies, more advanced than modal shift or demand management activities; however, different transport technologies are more successful in each country. We also identify examples of a close relationship between development of radical vehicle/fuel technologies markets and provision of mobility services (e.g., car leasing); and information technology as a major driver in all three niche areas. We conclude that future innovation in transport depends on diversity and co-evolution of niches, as well as hybridisation to bridge the gap between current and novel technologies and concepts. Policy implications for fostering a transition to a more sustainable mobility system are discussed. Proposals include the need to develop sustainable mobility ‘visions’ with niche and regime stakeholders and coordinate activities to achieve these visions, as well as policies (e.g., congestion charging) which encourage development in several niches.
Persistent unsustainable problems are not problems occurring ‘out there’, independently from our individual and collective behaviours in our daily interactions with the environment. Most current methods and tools for the assessment and management of unsustainability tend to focus on representing apparently-distant biophysical changes, rather than deepening the understanding of personal and agents’ behaviours, motives and values. They therefore tend to show unsustainability problems as problems of “others”’. In practice, existing assessment methods and tools tend to limit their scope of assessment to one single area of reality, deal only with one type of knowledge and, often, are addressed to the wrong communities of action and change. The EU MATISSE project aims at developing new reflective methods and tools capable of overcoming some of these pitfalls by supporting the co-production of socially and ecologically robust, and systemic narratives and visions that may stimulate transition learning and action on persistent unsustainability problems. Such narratives and visions, we argue, can be better developed, within the context of the new approach of Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA), if they take relational agent-based perspective.
Our paper provides a first description of an application of ISA to river basin management within the context of the EU project MATISSE. ,The paper reports on the application of the first stages of the ISA process framework (scoping and visioning) using participatory approaches in a case-study of the Ebro river basin. First results show that an emerging vision of sustainability entails a great deal of collaboration between agents working at different levels, as opposed to a fragmented world in which actors pursue their interests and benefits in an un-coordinated, exploitative and short-sighted manner. In their vision, stakeholders underline how multi-scale, multi-domain and multi-time problems such as the relationships between upstream/downstream, global/local, and short-term/long-term socio-economic processes need to be incorporated into the assessment and policy processes aimed at enhancing the socioecological resilience and sustainability of complex water systems such as the Ebro river basin.
This paper describes the participatory process of developing and implementing a prototype model aimed at supporting the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of water resources and policy options at different scales. The model - called the World Cellular Model (WCM) focuses on the representation of agents’ behaviours and their systemic relationships with their environment. This is achieved by examining the interests, motives, cultural beliefs and structural resources that drive agents’ actions with regard to the use of stocks and flows of water, by looking at the impact of such water behaviours on the environment and on the natural ecosystems at different scales, and by examining in a coevolutionary way the impact of such environmental changes on the behaviours of agents. The WC model takes a ‘total system’, multi-scale, agent perspective. That is, agents operate in a single interrelated system in which each individual or collective agent responds to the availability and use of a set of stocks and flows of rules and/or institutions (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) that in turn provokes environmental change (C) or impact on the social ecological system. . This model is being developed together with the use of participatory Integrated Assessment focus groups (IA-fgs) with real stakeholders to get insights about agents’ behaviours and the possible architecture of the model so as to increase its socio-ecological robustness and policy relevance. Our research is part of the EU funded project Matisse (Methods and Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment).
There is a mounting body of literature dealing generally with the dynamics of transitions of human systems towards sustainability and specifically with the different stages and processes of transitions. However, the question of why transition processes occur in the first place remains largely unexplained. This paper explores the concept of transition triggers, such as culture or material resource scarcity, and provides a theoretical framework to explain the emergence of a transition and its relation to recent developments in Spanish water policy. We adapt the general framework provided by current transition theory and gather empirical evidence and insights from processes occurring within the Spanish policy context and the Ebro river basin.
This paper aims to contribute to the normative discussion on sustainability learning and provides a theoretical integrative framework intended to underlie the main components and interrelations of what is needed to be learned for social learning to become sustainability learning. It also shows how this framework has been operationalised in a participatory modelling interface to support processes of natural resource integrated assessment and management. Our view takes as key modelling components those of structure (S), energy and resources (E), information and knowledge (I) and social-ecological change (C), as well as the size, thresholds and connections of and between different social-ecological systems. Our approach attempts to overcome many of the cultural dualisms that exist in the way social and ecological systems are perceived, which affect many of the most common definitions about sustainability. We understand that a more hybrid, systemic, co-evolutionary and relational integrative organic standpoint is needed. Our approach also emphasises the issue of limits within a total social-ecological system and takes a multi-scale, agent-based perspective. Sustainability learning is different from social learning insofar as not all the outcomes from social learning processes necessarily improve what we consider as essential for the long-term sustainability of social-ecological systems, namely the co-adaptive systemic capacities of agents to anticipate and deal with the unintended, undesired and irreversible negative effects of development. Hence, the main difference with social learning regards to the content of what is learned and in the criteria to assess such content, which necessarily has to do with increasing the capacity of agents to manage in an integrative and organic way the total social-ecological system of which they form part. The concept of sustainability learning and the SEIC social-ecological framework can be useful to assess and communicate the effectiveness of multiple agents to halt or reverse the destructive trends affecting life-support systems upon which we all depend.
Maximising the value and utilisation rate of the capital stock of durable goods offers a way to decouple economic growth from environmental damage absolutely and provide for economic growth to be sustained even in a capacitated environment. Niche examples already demonstrate the potential, but new framing conditions and incentives are needed if the approach is to become mainstreamed. Although single-measure solutions to the essentially-systemic problem of how to provide incentives for change are unlikely, some measures may nevertheless be pivotal for change. A critical requirement is to harmonise the incentives facing both producers and consumers to shift the object of exchange value in transactions from products to services. Resource/emission ceilings and individual allowances (preferably tradable) for one or two critical resources or pollutants, acting as surrogates for eco-capacity generally, could form the lynch-pin in a systemic approach to restructuring markets that would act on producers and consumers simultaneously.
This paper compares the material and resource use of the Czech Republic, Germany and the EU-15 over the period 1991-2000. The comparison is done on the basis of direct material input (DMI), total material requirement (TMR) and their individual components. In addition, material and resource intensities are examined. Both the Czech Republic and Germany show much higher levels of DMI per capita and TMR per capita than the EU-average. However, while the level of material and resource use is similar in Germany and the Czech Republic, there are important differences in the structure of the different components of DMI and TMR. This is mainly due to differences in the use of fossil fuels and minerals. For the TMR, differences are also notable for metals. Over the period studied there seems to be a tendency towards lower resource use and higher resource efficiency in the Czech Republic. The degree to which future development of the Czech economy will continue towards lower natural resource use and further increase of resource efficiency will critically depend on whether the major trends will follow the historical German path or orientate more towards the average EU-15 performance.
Abstract of Working Paper 14:
Four deliberative workshops were held in Norwich, UK, between September 2006 and March 2007 as part of the MATISSE project on sustainable futures and stakeholder-led policy assessment. The aims of the workshops were to elicit citizens’ perspectives on transport and housing (to inform Integrated Sustainability Assessments [ISA] of these problem domains) and to test and improve participatory methods for policy assessment and social learning. An interactive workshop design was used in which citizens’ spontaneous feelings and concerns were initially elicited via a ‘visioning exercise’, followed by expert presentations, followed by deliberation and elicitation of participants’ informed opinions. Analysis of participants’ responses shows these citizens support modal shift and reduced demand, as well as some personal transport; and favour affordable, rural eco-homes, in a strong, safe community with local amenities. Few ‘futuristic’ or unrealistic options were raised. There was no support for a business-as-usual approach, yet participants identified a range of barriers - primarily cultural, political and institutional barriers rather than technological obstacles - to achieving their ideal transport/housing futures. Participants (particularly in the transport workshops) tended to place responsibility for change with governments. Analysis of responses indicates there was rather more change in participants’ views between the start and end of the workshop in the housing workshops than in the transport workshops. Overall, one-quarter stated they had changed their views, and others said they had learned something by participating. Importantly, participants at the workshops were not representative of the UK population as a whole (the former being more qualified and probably more environmentally-conscious than the latter); further work will thus compare workshop participants’ views with those from other backgrounds. Stakeholders’ views about transport and housing will be used in stakeholder-led ISAs of mobility and housing. Further work will also assess the role, value, and methods for stakeholder participation in ISA.
The paper reports a case study of induced innovation, sustainable technology and transition management. The case study concerns the role of hydrogen in sustainable transport in Europe and uses a novel assessment process, Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA). ISA is a cyclical, participatory process of scoping, envisioning, experimenting and learning through which a shared interpretation of sustainability for a specific context is developed and applied in an integrated manner to explore solutions to persistent problems. ISA is strategic, constructive and potentially transformative. Its key role is to explore the problem-solving potential of framing conditions other than those in place, such as alternative technologies, institutions and policy regimes. The case study uses stakeholder workshops to obtain different perspectives on sustainable transport. It uses the ASTRA model to explore impacts and trade-offs implied by alternative transition strategies. Results reveal wide consensus that sustainable transport requires a diversified and renewable primary energy supply and diversified delivery of mobility solutions. International competitiveness is a serious economic/social concern. Hydrogen fuels and electrochemical conversion technologies could contribute to sustainability, but outcomes depend on how and where hydrogen is produced, the cost and technical performances of technologies, how these are improved, and whether the technologies induce new resource/sustainability constraints.
This report is based on results from the EU project SustainabilityA-Test (2004-2006), which was funded under FP6.1 The report evaluates modelling tools that have been applied to relevant aspects of sustainable development and sustainability assessment. The focus here is on "applied" models, i.e. models that try to simulate real-world processes based on or calibrated to empirical information. Modelling applications considered here have clear relevance to the actual policy-making process with regard to sustainability questions. Hence, pure theoretical models and rather conceptual models, dealing with basic mechanisms without direct link to empirical information, are not included. Based on this broad evaluation, the choice of specific models to be used within MATISSE is explained. Strengths and weaknesses of the chosen models are discussed, and the needs for improvements and linkages within the MATISSE work programme are clarified. Some form of categorisation is necessary to keep the evaluation task of the vast number of available models manageable. The models have therefore been grouped into three categories (biophysical models, socio-economic models, integrated models) with 11 sub-categories. The evaluation of strengths and weaknesses was conducted on the level of the sub-categories While many other forms of categorisation also would have been plausible, this approach was chosen especially because it allows for the challenges for more integrated modelling in the context of Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) to be illustrated.
1 The results of SustainabilityA-Test are well documented in a web-book at www.sustainabilitya-test.net
Abstract of Working Paper 17:
As part of a cluster workshop on sustainability of hydrogen transport technologies held in Frankfurt on 21st February 2006, MATISSE researchers conducted break-out discussion groups with, and distributed self-completion questionnaires to, stakeholders in hydrogen transport technology. The break-out group discussions revealed that stakeholders do not hold naïve views about the potential for hydrogen by itself to meet requirements for sustainability within either transport or wider energy systems. Most stakeholders did not equate hydrogen transport technology with sustainable mobility. For sustainable transport, stakeholders acknowledged the importance of modal shift and reduced demand (through more public transport use, congestion charging, teleworking, etc.); two groups emphasised a need for societal value change (e.g., away from aspirations to own powerful/luxury cars). Furthermore, for many (though not all) stakeholders the future involves hydrogen technologies co-existing with other transport technologies, e.g., biofuels and hybrid vehicles. Several participants pointed to the risks associated with focussing on one technological solution to the exclusion of possible alternatives. Nevertheless, stakeholders were broadly positive about hydrogen technologies; many pointed to the potential for hydrogen to offer a solution to problems of emissions, energy security and international competition. Participants highlighted a range of requirements that hydrogen - or indeed alternative technological, institutional and behavioural options for sustainable transport/energy systems - must meet to be defined as “sustainable”. These requirements go beyond simply considerations of hydrogen production and supply to include sustainable levels of mobility and societal values that impact on travel choices.
The stakeholder workshop discussed here is part of an iterative process of consultation and social learning with stakeholder groups in conducting Integrated Sustainability Assessments (ISAs) of sustainable hydrogen and mobility within the MATISSE project. Break-out discussion groups and self-completion questionnaires were used to elicit stakeholders’ feedback on, and further input to, the hydrogen and mobility transition modelling work conducted within MATISSE, to identify whether sustainability visions should be modified and which policies should be assessed, and to foster social learning amongst stakeholders. In respect of the vision of sustainable hydrogen-based transport developed in MATISSE, stakeholders agreed that different countries should use different feedstocks and production technologies, and most agreed that it will be necessary to use conventional hydrogen production methods in the initial phase of a hydrogen transition, before (rapidly) moving towards a renewable-based transport system. Overall, the questionnaire results show stakeholders are ambivalent about the social and economic impacts of hydrogen-based transport, but are optimistic about its environmental impact. Furthermore, the group discussions revealed concerns that a hydrogen transition may imply a move towards more unsustainable transport in some respects, namely increasing social inequality and problematic technologies (i.e. carbon capture and sequestration [CCS] and nuclear) involved in hydrogen production, and contributing to unsustainable economic, energy and transport growth. These concerns about the possible unsustainability of hydrogen suggest these issues would be usefully addressed in policy assessments of hydrogen. Indeed, most participants advocated an alternative sustainable transport vision – most commonly, a ‘modal shift’ vision – to be considered in addition to a hydrogen-based transport vision. Alternative transport technologies (biofuels, hybrid-electrics) and reduced mobility demand were also discussed, though there was less agreement about the merits of these alternatives. Overall, stakeholders at this workshop were very optimistic about the role of transport technologies – particularly hydrogen – in tackling problems of unsustainability. In respect of particular policies that should be assessed, stakeholders particularly favoured economic measures, such as carbon/emissions taxes, and research, development and demonstration (RD&D) to promote novel technologies. Investment in public transport infrastructure, public education, and institutional changes (e.g., to avoid global inequalities, to develop locally relevant solutions) were also suggested for promoting sustainable transport. Around a third of stakeholders said they had changed their views as a result of participation in the break-out groups; and most said they had learnt something.
This paper summarises the analysis undertaken within the MATISSE project on the role that environmental tax reform (ETR) could play in future sustainable development in the EU and the Czech Republic in particular, and points debated in discussions with key Czech stakeholders.
The flows of the platinum group metals (PGMs) platinum, palladium and rhodium and the environmental impacts associated with the supply of Europe are analyzed. For that purpose, a model of the demand side (i.e. use of PGMs in European industries) has been developed and combined with a model of the environmental pressures related to PGM production. The results are presented in two different papers (Working Paper 20 and Working Paper 21).
Part I presents the methods and assumptions used for the material flow analyses of PGM production and use. Seven industrial sectors and product groups relevant for the use of PGMs in Europe are considered, including chemical and petroleum industries, glass industry, jewellery, dentistry, electronic equipment, car catalysts, and other industrial applications. The most relevant environmental impacts of secondary production in Europe and primary PGM production in South Africa, Russia and Canada are taken into account. These include emissions of sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide, and total material requirement. Part I quantifies the PGM flows to, from and within Europe in 2004. The automotive industry is the single largest demander for primary PGMs and catalytic converters represent the major PGM end-use. The chemical and glass industries also require large amounts of PGMs but, in contrast to the automotive sector, they are organised in closed loops and therefore can mostly rely on secondary metals. The environmental impacts of primary production exceed those of secondary production by far. The analysis of the use of car catalytic converters reveals a problem shifting from impacts by diffuse emissions of air pollutants in Europe to point source pollution at the extraction and refining sites mainly in Siberia and South Africa.
Part II focuses on the assessment of potential mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental impacts. The influence of technological and institutional levers on PGM flows and the associated environmental impacts is modelled through different scenarios of potential future developments. Cleaner primary production, increased recycling and technological evolution in the field of car catalysts are the main potential levers scrutinized. Scenarios are also developed to simulate the future impact of an emerging new technology – fuel cell vehicles – on PGM flows and reserves.
The flow of platinum group metals (PGM) such as platinum, palladium and rhodium and the environmental impacts of the supply of Europe are analyzed. For that purpose, a model of the demand side (i.e. use of PGM in European industries) has been developed and combined with a model of the environmental pressures related to PGM production.
Part I in the series of papers presented the base case scenario for the material flow analyses of PGM production and use. The importance of the automotive industry as the single largest user of primary PGM in Europe was underlined, as was the problem of shifting the impacts of diffuse emissions of air pollutants in Europe to point source pollution at the extraction and refining sites mainly in Siberia and South Africa.
This paper - Part II of the series- quantifies the influence that different potential developments of PGM production and use could have on the environmental impacts and the PGM resources. Some potential mitigation strategies are assessed in comparison with the base case. In the field of cleaner PGM production, two options are discussed. First, the planned reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions (by 70 %) in the smelting process of Norilsk (Siberia) from 2010 onwards could mean a 35 % reduction of the cumulative SO2 emissions associated with the use of PGM in Europe for the period 2005-2020. Second, a cleaner electricity production in South Africa from coal-fired power plants could help reduce the cumulative SO2 emissions by another 9 %.
The automotive sector could contribute to the mitigation of environmental impacts by improving the recycling rate of end-of-life catalytic converters. A linear increase from today’s level (30 % recycling rate) up to 70 % in 2020 could help save 15 % of the cumulative PGM input into car catalysts and 10 % of the SO2 emissions associated with this use, for the period 2005-2020. In 2020, the PGM requirements and the emissions would be 40 % and 22 % lower than in the base case respectively.
An increasing recycling rate of old car catalysts is also an option to counter the potential undesired effects of the substitution of palladium for part of the platinum used in diesel catalysts. Coupled with a probable increase of the price of palladium, the substitution strategy could imply 15 % more cumulative SO2 emissions for the period 2005-2020. Increasing recycling rates would prevent the increase and allow a slight decrease.
The potential future introduction of fuel cell vehicles requires important technological improvements to reduce the PGM content of the fuel cell stack, if a wide scale introduction of this technology is to be considered. Independently from technological progress, the basic design of future fuel cell vehicles will have a great influence on key parameters determining the total PGM requirements, such as the power of the vehicle.
Abstract of Working Paper 22:
This paper discusses the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles (FCV) in Germany from the perspectives of different stakeholders. There are several economic studies and models describing the introduction of hydrogen-powered vehicles, but most of them focus on only one segment of the car market. Most studies analyse the impacts of FCVs on the automotive industry or the demand for FCVs separately, while others look at the required hydrogen infrastructure, but none of these analyses examines the car market as a whole. This analysis takes into account the actions of the main car market stakeholders (consumers, automotive manufacturers, filling station owners and policy makers) and their interactions.
The analysis, which is based on a System Dynamics model, clearly showed that the governmanet is recommended to support a least 500 fuel stations in installing hydrogen filling pumps and not to offer FCVs as long as there are no filling stations providing hydrogen. On the other hand, a hydrogen infrastructure will not be developed unless there is a notiecable demand generated by a significant number of FCVs on the road. Furthermore, additional subsidies fr the vehicles are necessary to reduce the price of FCVs to the level of modern diesel cars; otherwise consumers' acceptance of FCVs will be very low. According to the results of the model, tax-free hydrogen fuel and subsidies on FCVs will lead to quick market penetration of FCVs. A rapid introduction of FCVs based on these policies is necessary in order to limit the cumulative subsidies for the vehicles and fuel-tax waiving.
Our objective is to develop new ways of modelling the dynamics of water system management that provide for exploration and representation of cultural and behavioural change. Our approach is to develop an interactive computer game. In the game, the water system is modelled using spatially-explicit integrated assessment models, and water management is represented as the dynamic outcome of interactions between water culture, water policy and actor behaviour. The purpose of the game is to explore future pathways of water management in the Ebro River Basin in Spain, and contribute to a social learning process amongst the players involved. The paper reports work in progress, but the conceptual approach has already been translated into a prototype model format, which has been tested and shows promise.
This article creates a meeting ground between two distinct and fairly elaborate research traditions dealing with social “transitions”: the Dutch societal transitions management approach, and the Viennese socio-metabolic transitions approach. After a brief reference to various social science strands of dealing with social change, the two research approaches are described, directing a particular focus on their respective epistemological and conceptual framing. In a final paragraph, the commonalities and differences between the two approaches are summarized. The key message is that the two approaches are rather complementary than competing, sharing several paradigmatic assumptions but applying the research in different contexts.
As part of a cluster workshop on sustainability of hydrogen transport technologies held in Frankfurt on 21st February 2006, MATISSE researchers conducted break-out discussion groups with, and distributed self-completion questionnaires to, stakeholders in hydrogen transport technology. The break-out group discussions revealed that stakeholders do not hold naïve views about the potential for hydrogen by itself to meet requirements for sustainability within either transport or wider energy systems. Most stakeholders did not equate hydrogen transport technology with sustainable mobility. For sustainable transport, stakeholders acknowledged the importance of modal shift and reduced demand (through more public transport use, congestion charging, teleworking, etc.); two groups emphasised a need for societal value change (e.g., away from aspirations to own powerful/luxury cars). Furthermore, for many (though not all) stakeholders the future involves hydrogen technologies co-existing with other transport technologies, e.g., biofuels and hybrid vehicles. Several participants pointed to the risks associated with focussing on one technological solution to the exclusion of possible alternatives. Nevertheless, stakeholders were broadly positive about hydrogen technologies; many pointed to the potential for hydrogen to offer a solution to problems of emissions, energy security and international competition. Participants highlighted a range of requirements that hydrogen - or indeed alternative technological, institutional and behavioural options for sustainable transport/energy systems - must meet to be defined as “sustainable”. These requirements go beyond simply considerations of hydrogen production and supply to include sustainable levels of mobility and societal values that impact on travel choices.
This report describes (i) a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, the EFI-GTM (European Forest Institute Global Trade Model) and the key sustainability indicators for the forest sector that were implemented in the model in the MATISSE project, ii) the projected development of these indicators during 2000–2025 in the base case; and (iii) the impact on the indicators when it is assumed that the problem of degrading forest biodiversity is addressed in the EU/EFTA region by setting aside forest from commercial use for conservation. Regarding (i), we looked for the most important sustainability indicators drawing on the MCPFE (Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe) indicators of sustainable forest management and the discussions with the stakeholders arranged within the MATISSE project. The indicators were implemented in the EFI-GTM model in order to project their development and to assess, which are the main unsustainability issues in the sector in the future. Regarding (ii), we first defined the base case with which the impacts of the policy measures addressing unsustainability issues could be estimated. In the base case, turnover, production and employment in the forest sector (the last of particular importance to rural areas) all increase. Nevertheless, increased global competition over fibre resources decreases the profitability of the forest industries from the levels seen in the early 2000s. In relative terms, the value of timber sales rises more than the value of forest industry sales. According to the model results, the forest sector production in Europe will become more oriented towards satisfying local needs in the future. The use of recycled fibre in the industry increases. Also the growing stock of roundwood increases, so that the forests sequester more carbon in the future than today. With no technical improvements to the current best available technology, the energy consumption of the sector increases in line with production. In the base case, no additional measures were assumed to be taken in order to conserve forest biodiversity. Considering the fact that rising wood prices motivate further intensification of forest management, it is likely, that in 2025 the status of forest biodiversity in this scenario would be weaker than today. This, together with the fact that European Union has made a commitment to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010, motivated us to concentrate on this issue in the policy example given in iii). Regarding (iii), we report the impact on the key sustainability indicators when it is assumed that the problem of degrading forest biodiversity is addressed in the EU/EFTA region by setting aside forest from commercial use for conservation. The conservation set-asides improve the biodiversity status in the EU, provided that the management of forest land remaining in timber production would not intensify to the levels which would offset the gains from conservation. Conservation increases timber prices and therefore it decreases timber demand from the base case. That has adverse impacts on employment and self-sufficiency indicators in the sector. Among the positive impacts is the reduction in the projected energy demand. Forest conservation set-asides of 5% or less have rather modest impacts on the sustainability indicators. The impacts are largest in Northern Europe and lowest in Western Europe.
Brazil is an agricultural giant that is in the process of becoming an energy giant as a biofuel exporter. Most OECD countries have expressed interest in Brazilian biofuels for coping both with the supply security and the climate risk. None of them has enough biofuel potential domestically. The prospect of a high oil export price provides a unique opportunity for Brazil to design a huge program of biofuel production and export (especially of ethanol) as a development boost and as a component of negotiating and implementing international climate accords. Brazil owns a unique stock of unused croppable land that could be harnessed for a huge biofuel export to the rest of the world. But part of it is also the largest forest in the world, with a huge potential for wood and other forest products, plus a natural carbon storage and a biodiversity wealth, not to forget the local climate equilibrium. Therefore Brazil is facing crucial choices on exploiting its biomass potential without losing so many positive externalities.
This paper first puts into perspective the current Brazilian energy context and its implications for the strategy of this country in climate negotiations. Second it presents a numerical experiment aiming at disentangling the numerous impacts of large-scale exports of ethanol up to 2030 in the context of a world commitment to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 450 ppm of CO2. Third there is an examination of the interplay between mechanisms that determine the impact of a large-scale development of the Brazilian biomass on the prices of food and pressure on forest in Brazil and how Brazil might pursue a dual aim of environment and development. Brazil’s emissions are dominated by the deforestation component, while the political expectations consist mainly in developing more rapidly and with a less unequal pattern.