Developing new tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment WP 9
Overview
This WP is working on the next generationof ISA-tools and methods - based on analysis of the critical gaps in thecurrent ISA-tool kit (WP2). The focus of this work is on quantitativeISA-models in relation to ISA-participatory methods. The evolution ofintegrated assessment models in recent years and the starting point for this WPis marked by a shift from 1)supply- to demand-driven, in the sense thatstakeholders are involved in a certain stage of model development; 2) a partialsystems approach to socio-economic-ecological systems to an integrated systemsapproach and from deterministic to heuristic and stochastic approaches; 3) frompredictive tools to explorative tools, indicating the increased awareness amongbuilders of the complexity and uncertainty surrounding IA-models; 4) frommonolithic tools developed by individual researchers to modular-based toolsdeveloped by networks of research institutes, where the complexity of IA-modelsrequires a collaborative effort rather than isolated individual attempts. Aspecial emphasis will lie on the development of more innovative, challengingand surprising scenarios.
Objectives
The overall objective is to developbuilding blocks for the new generation of ISA-modelling tools. The intention isto build “Triple-I models” ( Innovative,Integrated and Interactive):
Innovative because the paradigmatic basisof these models will be different - following an evolutionary paradigm, andmore oriented towards the dynamic behaviour of actors, explicitly incorporatedinto ISA-models;
Integrated because of the integration ofdifferent strands of knowledge at different spatial and functional scalelevels, and because of the integration of socio-economic and ecologicalknowledge;
Interactive because the influence androle of stakeholders become more and more important. This influence manifestsitself in both the conceptual and implementation phase of an ISA-model, butalso in the usage of the model, realising that multiple stakeholders perceive aproblem from different perspectives, and therefore act differently, whichshould be reflected in an ISA-model.
Activities
The development of “Triple-I models” willbe focused on five central themes of ISA: transitions, social-cultural dimensions,scaling, uncertainty and stakeholder involvement. These have been arranged asfour highly inter-linked tasks that together will provide a coordinated modellinginput to the case studies.
Developing ISA-models The first challenge is to represent transitional patterns insocio-economic systems in a more adequate manner in ISA-models. A fullrepresentation of social-cultural-economic-technological-environmental systemsis still impossible. It is proposed to develop relativelysimple ISA-models (prototypes) that are able to describe transition patterns.The application areas that will be addressed here will be linked to the fourMATISSE case studies: transition patterns in rural areas (case study WP4);transition patterns in the dematerialization of Europe’s economic system (casestudy WP5); water transition management (case study WP6); and technologicaltransition patterns (case study WP7).
Developing ISA-models forquantitatively assessing socio-cultural change Thesecond challenge concerns the incorporation of social and cultural change intoISA-models. Previous efforts in ISA-modelling have tended to collapse cultureand society into economy. In the next generation of ISA-models cultural andsocial forces will play a vital role.
Relating a typology ofuncertainty to ISA-models As regardsuncertainties the proposed approach is to use a typology of uncertainties,based on the distinction between two sources of uncertainty: uncertainty as aresult of variability and due to lack of knowledge. This task aims to relate atypology of uncertainty to ISA models in order to make the different sourcesand types of uncertainty explicit and to develop management strategies on howto handle these uncertainties.
Developing different kindsof stakeholder-oriented ISA-models A finalchallenge concerns the involvement of stakeholders in the process of modeldevelopment and model usage. In this process of interaction we can distinguishthree types of stakeholders: (i) stakeholders as advisors; (ii) stakeholders as users;(iii) stakeholder as actors. Wepropose to develop examples of each of the three stakeholder-oriented ISA-models.This task focuses in particular on developing different kinds ofstakeholder-oriented ISA with stakeholders as users and actors.
Products
- ISA-models
and ISA-scenarios that capture transition patterns representing the complex
interactions between socio-economic and environmental systems in several
MATISSE case studies
- ISA-models
for quantitatively assessing socio-cultural change processes within several
MATISSE case studies
- Stakeholder-oriented
ISA-models, in particular with stakeholders as users and actors (agent-based
models) in several MATISSE case studies
- ISA-models
with explicit articulation of types and sources of uncertainty in relation to
strategies how to management these uncertainties
Research team for WP 9
Tyndall Centre& CSERGE, University of East Anglia, Norwich
InternationalCentre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University
Dutch ResearchInstitute for Transitions (Drift), Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR)
Centre forEnvironmental Studies (MICLU), Lund University
Contact: AlexHaxeltyne, Tyndall Centre alex.haxeltine@uea.ac.uk